Staying Solvent Through the Peaks and Troughs
For seasonal entrepreneurs —those in tourism, agriculture, hospitality, or events— a strong summer is essential. But it’s not always enough to weather the quieter quarters that follow. Revenue may spike during peak periods, but costs rarely pause during off-seasons. As supply chain delays, wage inflation, and weather risks persist, relying solely on historic trends or instinct can leave your business exposed.
Cash flow forecasting is increasingly vital for seasonal businesses seeking to build resilience and plan. It’s not just about monitoring liquidity; it’s about simulating risk, anticipating dips, and optimising working capital decisions in real time.
Why Cash Flow Forecasting Matters More in 2025
Inflation may be falling in some markets, but volatility remains. Energy price shifts, wage increases and delayed payments all continue to strain SME budgets. According to the 2025 Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Late Payments Report, 62% of UK small businesses are also owed money from unpaid invoices, with an average of more than £21,000 owed.
Cash flow forecasting helps entrepreneurs take control. By projecting income and outflows based on past trends, current invoices, and anticipated operational shifts, business owners can preempt shortfalls and build in corrective strategies early. For seasonal firms, these forecasts enable proactive decisions, whether that involves sourcing credit, negotiating payment terms, or postponing major investments.
Scenario Planning for Seasonal Cash Flow
No forecast is complete without stress testing. For seasonal businesses, forecasting must factor in more than simple sales cycles. What happens if a rainy August wipes out footfall? What if a supplier delays a major delivery until September? What if two of your biggest clients request deferred payment terms?
Scenario planning allows businesses to model these outcomes and assess their impact on cash availability. Best-case, expected, and worst-case forecasts each offer a view into future net cash positions. From there, contingency plans can be developed, such as activating a short-term credit facility or adjusting staffing levels in advance.
SME Cash Flow Management in Practice
Effective SME cash flow management starts with better visibility. Entrepreneurs should centralise invoicing, expense tracking and credit schedules within a unified financial platform. Real-time updates make it easier to spot early signs of stress and take swift action.
Key practices include weekly cash position reconciliation during peak and shoulder periods, mapping variable costs against expected revenues, and monitoring debtor days with particular attention to B2B clients. Establishing emergency reserves or access to revolving credit also provides much-needed flexibility during leaner months.
These challenges are not confined to the UK. In Australia, where tourism and agriculture represent major seasonal sectors, a 2025 NAB Business Insights report highlighted that 43% of SMEs cite cash flow as their top concern, especially in the wake of extreme weather and cost-of-living impacts. The report notes that dynamic budgeting and early engagement with financial advisors were two of the most effective strategies used to overcome these risks.
Accountants can be instrumental in this process, helping entrepreneurs develop agile models that reflect local sector conditions, historical trends and changing operating costs. Cash flow forecasting becomes more than a compliance task; it becomes the financial GPS of the business.
Moreover, repeated compliance failures can attract additional scrutiny from regulators, leading to stringent oversight and further operational limitations. Businesses known for strong compliance practices, on the other hand, typically enjoy greater trust and loyalty from customers, investors, and partners.
From Reactive to Resilient: Building Financial Strength
Financial resilience is not just about surviving the off-season. It enables business owners to act decisively when opportunity arises. Seasonal firms with strong cash forecasting practices are more likely to identify moments to expand, rehire or invest, while others scramble to catch up.
Robust forecasting can also reduce financing costs. Lenders and credit partners are more willing to offer favourable terms when liquidity projections are grounded in clear, data-backed analysis. For businesses with international suppliers or diversified revenue streams, this visibility becomes even more critical.
Forecast Smarter with INAA
For seasonal entrepreneurs, accurate forecasting is a non-negotiable. INAA’s global members offer tailored advice, financial modelling and strategic planning to help your business stay resilient through every cycle.
Whether you’re anticipating a high-traffic quarter or preparing for the quieter months, connect with an INAA member to create stronger forecasts and plan with confidence. Requirements, but also provide invaluable strategic guidance, protecting your business’s reputation and financial stability.